Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.579250 0.671344 0.770236 0.883966 1.010775 1.147449 1.305513
2025-03-16 0.424979 0.541309 0.675446 0.840211 1.035730 1.258893 1.531342
2025-03-23 0.336615 0.469477 0.633314 0.847036 1.115035 1.436412 1.847025
2025-03-30 0.245859 0.378702 0.554751 0.799219 1.123334 1.531357 2.075992
2025-04-06 0.184550 0.314888 0.500629 0.774789 1.157989 1.662572 2.363319
2025-04-13 0.135845 0.258663 0.447527 0.744103 1.180810 1.781290 2.646996
2025-04-20 0.105987 0.224674 0.420953 0.747342 1.251047 1.970572 3.042014
2025-04-27 0.080426 0.191376 0.389418 0.738518 1.302951 2.139669 3.424753
2025-05-04 0.062858 0.167845 0.369684 0.745572 1.379899 2.352173 3.887010
2025-05-11 0.048416 0.146053 0.348673 0.747311 1.448725 2.558798 4.357198
2025-05-18 0.034008 0.118779 0.311082 0.713586 1.455104 2.669913 4.693060
2025-05-25 0.022852 0.094217 0.272630 0.671222 1.440967 2.746625 4.981361
2025-06-01 0.016416 0.079745 0.253402 0.665299 1.495004 2.945997 5.489031
2025-06-08 0.011219 0.065723 0.231098 0.648973 1.528142 3.113953 5.959940
2025-06-15 0.008610 0.059256 0.226297 0.670257 1.636564 3.421491 6.683036
2025-06-22 0.005461 0.047393 0.202486 0.643289 1.645946 3.555136 7.124029
2025-06-29 0.003597 0.039401 0.187020 0.633107 1.688450 3.752226 7.686949
2025-07-06 0.002225 0.031966 0.170084 0.615401 1.712537 3.916934 8.203939
2025-07-13 0.001540 0.028070 0.163945 0.625215 1.798147 4.204373 8.955037
2025-07-20 0.000981 0.023809 0.154378 0.623381 1.857139 4.444594 9.634737
2025-07-27 0.000657 0.021005 0.149518 0.634427 1.947598 4.753430 10.456974
2025-08-03 0.000415 0.018228 0.143304 0.640031 2.025711 5.042795 11.258144
2025-08-10 0.000198 0.014211 0.128252 0.613528 2.021374 5.163004 11.747583